Njengoba sonke sazi, "igolide eliyisishagalolunye neshumi lesiliva" yisikhathi esiphezulu sokuthengwa kwezimoto, kodwa isimo "sokushoda okuyisisekelo" okubangelwa ukusabalala kobhubhane lwaphesheya kwezilwandle siyaqhubeka nokuba sibi.Izikhondlakhondla eziningi zezimoto emhlabeni wonke ziphoqelekile ukuthi zehlise ukukhiqizwa noma zimise ukukhiqiza isikhashana kusukela ngo-Agasti kuya kuSepthemba.Amandla amasha "ama-Rookies" aphinde alungisa ukulindela kwabo kokuthengisa kwekota yesithathu, okwenza umthamo wokuthengiselana wezitolo ze-4S kanye nabathengisi bezimoto behle ngesikhathi se-"golden nine" futhi "azikho izimoto ezingathengiswa" Kubonakala sengathi kuyinto evamile entsha. yabanye abadayisi nabadayisi bezimoto.
Phezulu: Ama-auto chips akhuphuke ngendlela exakile kakhulu
Eqinisweni, izimoto, ama-electronics abathengi, ukwelashwa, i-LEDS ngisho namathoyizi manje sekuyimigqa ye-360, futhi kukhona ukuntuleka kwama-chips.Isizathu sokuthi kungani "ukuntuleka kwemoto okubalulekile" kuqala ukuthi ama-chips ezimoto akhuphuke ngendlela exakile kakhulu.
Uma sibheka umugqa wesikhathi, ngomthelela we-COVID-19, engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020 kuphela, amakhulu amafekthri ezimoto amiswa ngenxa yokuphathwa okuvaliwe, ukushoda kwezingxenye kanye nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, imakethe yezimoto yomhlaba wonke yalulama ngokungalindelekile, futhi ukuthengiswa kwemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene kwaphindeka, kodwa umthamo omkhulu wokukhiqiza wabakhiqizi bama-chip okhuphuka nomfula ufakwe kwezinye izimboni.Kuze kube manje, isihloko esithi "ukushoda kwe-chip ye-car specication" siqhume imboni yonke okokuqala ngqa.
Ngokuya ngezinhlobo ezithile, kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2021q1, ama-chips aphelelwe kakhulu esitokweni yi-MCU esetshenziswa ku-ESP (uhlelo lwe-electronic stability system) kanye nezinhlelo ze-ECU (electronic control unit).Phakathi kwabo, abahlinzeki abakhulu be-ESP yiBosch, ZF, Continental, Autoliv, Hitachi, Nisin, Wandu, Aisin, njll.
Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngo-2021q2, ubhubhane lwe-covid-19 eMalaysia, izitshalo zokupakisha nokuhlola zezinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe zamazwe ngamazwe ziphoqeleke ukuthi zivale ngenxa yalolu bhubhane, futhi ukushoda komhlaba wonke kokuhlinzekwa kwama-chip ezimoto kuqhubekile nokuba kubi.Kulezi zinsuku, ukushoda kwama-chips ezimoto kusabalele kusukela ku-MCU ku-ESP / ECU kuya kuma-millimeter wave radar, izinzwa namanye ama-chips akhethekile.
Kusukela kumakethe yendawo, idatha ekhishwe Ukuphathwa Kombuso Wokuqondisa izimakethe nokuphatha kubonisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwesimo sokunikezwa okulinganiselwe kanye nesidingo, izinga lokukhuphuka kwentengo labadayisi bezimoto zezimoto ngokuvamile liba ngu-7% - 10%.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokushoda okuphelele kwama-chips, ama-chips ezimoto amaningi asakazwa emakethe yase-Huaqiang North anda izikhathi ezingaphezu kweziyi-10 phakathi nonyaka.
Mayelana nalokhu, umbuso wagcina usuthatha isiphithiphithi semakethe yezepolitiki!Kwabikwa ngasekuqaleni kukaSepthemba ukuthi amabhizinisi amathathu okusabalalisa ama-chip ezimoto ahlawuliswa isamba se-yuan eyizigidi ezingu-2.5 yi-State Administration of market supervision and administration ngenxa yokunyusa intengo yama-chips ezimoto.Kubikwa ukuthi amabhizinisi okusabalalisa angenhla azothengisa ama-chips ngentengo yokuthenga engaphansi kwama-yuan ayi-10 ngentengo ephezulu engaphezu kwama-yuan angama-400, ngokukhuphuka kwentengo izikhathi ezingama-40.
Ngakho-ke kungadanjiswa nini ukushoda kwe-chip yemininingwane yemoto?Ukuvumelana kwemboni ukuthi kunzima ukukuxazulula ngokuphelele ngesikhathi esifushane.
I-China Automobile Industry Association yathi ngo-August ukuthi ukushoda kwama-chip emhlabeni wonke okubangelwa abakhiqizi bezimoto ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa mancane amathuba okuba kuxazululwe maduzane ngoba lolu bhubhane lusaqhubeka nokudlondlobala ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba.
Ngokwesibikezelo se-Ihsmarkit, umthelela wokushoda kwe-chip ekukhiqizeni izimoto uzoqhubeka kuze kube yikota yokuqala ka-2022, futhi ukunikezwa kungase kuzinze engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, futhi kuqale ukululama engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022.
Isikhulu sakwa-Infineon uReinhard Ploss uthe ngenxa yokucindezela kwezindleko eziphezulu zabakhiqizi be-semiconductor kanye nesidingo esikhulu, amanani entengo yama-chip kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke kakhulu.Kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2024, imakethe ye-semiconductor ingase ibe phezulu, futhi inkinga yokugcwala ngokweqile izovela.
Inhloko yebhizinisi lakwaVolkswagen's Americas ikholelwa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zase-US ngeke kubuyele kwesejwayelekile kuze kube yingxenye yesibili ka-2022.
I-Midstream: “ingalo ephukile yendoda enamandla” ukuze kubhekwane nomthelela wengqikithi engekho
Ngaphansi komthelela wokushoda okuqhubekayo kokuhlinzekwa kwama-chip, izinkampani eziningi zezimoto kufanele "ziphule izingalo" ukuze ziphile - ukukhetha okungcono kakhulu ukubeka kuqala ukunikezwa kwamamodeli abalulekile, ikakhulukazi izimoto ezintsha ezisanda kufakwa ohlwini namandla amasha athengiswayo. izimoto.Uma ingasizi, izonciphisa ukukhiqizwa okwesikhashana futhi imise ukukhiqiza.Phela, “ukuphila kubaluleke ngaphezu kwanoma yini”.
(1) Amabhizinisi ezimoto zendabuko, ukukhiqizwa okuvamile kuye kwaba "okuphuthumayo ngokugcwele".Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele, kusukela ngo-Agasti kuya kuSepthemba, amabhizinisi ezimoto amemezele ukuncishiswa nokuvalwa kokukhiqiza kwesikhashana ahlanganisa:
AbakwaHonda bamemezele ngoSepthemba 17 ukuthi kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto ezimbonini zabo eJapan kusukela ngo-Agasti kuya kuSepthemba kuzoba ngaphansi ngo-60% kunohlelo lwasekuqaleni, futhi umphumela uzoncishiswa cishe ngama-30% ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba.
AbakwaToyota bamemezele ngo-Agasti ukuthi izimboni zabo ezingu-14 eJapane zizomisa ukukhiqiza ngama-degree ahlukene ngenxa yokushoda kwama-chip ngo-Agasti no-September, nesikhathi esiphezulu sokuvalwa kwezinsuku ezingu-11.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zakwaToyota emhlabeni jikelele kwehle ngo-330000 ngo-Okthoba, okuzobalelwa ku-40% wohlelo lokuqala lokukhiqiza.
I-Subaru iphinde yamemezela ukuthi isikhathi sokuvalwa kwale mboni kanye nefekthri ye-Yadao ye-Gunma production Institute (iTaitian City, isifunda sase-Gunma) kuzonwetshwa kuze kube nguSepthemba 22.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, iSuzuki izomisa ukukhiqiza efektri yaseHamamatsu (Hamamatsu City) ngoSepthemba 20.
Ngaphezu kweJapan, amabhizinisi ezimoto e-United States, eJalimane nakwamanye amazwe nawo amise ukukhiqiza noma anciphisa ukukhiqizwa.
NgoSepthemba 2 ngesikhathi sendawo, iGeneral Motors yamemezela ukuthi izimboni eziyi-8 kwezingu-15 zaseNyakatho Melika zizomisa ukukhiqiza emasontweni amabili ezayo ngenxa yokushoda kwama-chips, kubika i-AP.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, iFord Motor Company iphinde yamemezela ukuthi izomisa ukukhiqizwa kwamaloli endaweni yomhlangano eKansas City emasontweni amabili ezayo, futhi izimboni ezimbili zamaloli eMichigan naseKentucky zizonqamula amashifu azo.
I-Skoda nesihlalo, izinkampani ezingaphansi kweVolkswagen, zombili zikhiphe izitatimende zithi izimboni zabo zizomisa ukukhiqiza ngenxa yokushoda kwama-chips.Phakathi kwazo, imboni yeSkoda Czech izomisa ukukhiqizwa isonto elilodwa ekupheleni kukaSepthemba;Isikhathi sokuvalwa kwesitshalo se-SIAT'S Spanish sizonwetshwa sifike ku-2022.
(2) Izimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla, “ukuntuleka komgogodla” kugadle.
Nakuba inkinga “yokushoda komgogodla wezimoto” igqamile, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezinamandla ezintsha kusashisa eminyakeni yamuva futhi kuvame ukuthandwa yimali.
Ngokwemininingwane yanyanga zonke ye-China Automobile Industry Association, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zaseChina ngo-Agasti bekuyizigidi eziyi-1.799, kwehle ngo-3.5% ngenyanga kanye no-17.8% unyaka nonyaka.Kodwa-ke, imakethe yezimoto zamandla amasha eChina isasebenza kahle kakhulu emakethe, futhi ukukhiqizwa nokuthengisa kwaqhubeka nokukhula inyanga nenyanga nonyaka nonyaka.Ivolumu yokukhiqiza nokuthengisa idlule i-300000 okokuqala, yafinyelela irekhodi elisha.
Ngokumangalisayo, “ukushaywa kobuso” kwafika ngokushesha.
NgoSepthemba 20, imoto ekahle yamemezela ukuthi ngenxa yokuduma kwe-covid-19 eMalaysia, ukukhiqizwa kwama-chips akhethekile abahlinzeki benkampani ye-radar ye-millimeter wave kuphazamiseke kakhulu.Ngenxa yokuthi izinga lokutholwa kwama-chip liphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe, inkampani manje ilindele ukuthi izimoto ezingaba ngu-24500 zilethwe engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2021, uma kuqhathaniswa nezimoto ezingama-25000 kuye kwezingu-26000 ezazibikezelwe ngaphambili.
Eqinisweni, imoto ye-Weilai, enye inkampani ehamba phambili phakathi kwabakhiqizi bezimoto zasekhaya abasha, nayo yathi ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba ngenxa yokungaqiniseki nokuguquguquka kokuhlinzekwa kwe-semiconductor, manje sehlisa isibikezelo sayo sokulethwa kwekota yesithathu yalo nyaka.Ngokwesibikezelo sayo, ukulethwa kwezimoto engxenyeni yesithathu yalo nyaka kuzofinyelela cishe ku-225000 kuya ku-235000, okungaphansi kwalokho obekulindelwe ngaphambili kuka-230000 kuya ku-250000.
Kubikwa ukuthi imoto ekahle, i-Weilai imoto kanye ne-Xiaopeng izimoto ezintathu ezihamba phambili ezihamba phambili ngokuqaliswa kwezimoto zikagesi e-China, eziqhudelana noTesla, umkhiqizi wezimoto zikagesi waseMelika, kanye nezinkampani zakuleli ezifana neGeely neGreat Wall Motors.
Imoto ekahle manje kanye nemoto yakwa-Weilai zombili zehlise lokho okulindelwe ukulethwa kwe-Q3, okubonisa ukuthi isimo sezimoto ezisebenza ngamandla amasha asingcono kunezontanga yazo.Ngomthamo wokukhiqiza izimoto, lolu bhubhane luseyingozi enkulu.
Kuyaqapheleka ukuthi ohulumeni abaningi baseYurophu nabaseMelika beze ngaphambili ukuze baxhumane neMalaysia, ngethemba lokuthi iMalaysia ingabeka kuqala ukunikezwa kwama-chips ezimoto emabhizinisini ayo ezimoto.Izikhulu eziphezulu zezinkampani zezimoto zaseChina zicele uhulumeni ukuthi axhumanise lolu daba.
Ezansi komfula: igaraji “alinalutho” futhi umdayisi “akanazo izimoto azozithengisa”
“Ukushoda okuwumgogodla” kuholele ekwehlisweni kokukhiqizwa nokuthunyelwa kwabakhiqizi abaphakathi nendawo, okubangele ukushoda okukhulu kwempahla yamabhizinisi okuthengisa aphansi, futhi kubangele ukusabela okuthile emakethe yezimoto yomhlaba wonke.
Okokuqala ukwehla kokuthengiswayo.Ngokwemininingwane ye-China Automobile Circulation Association, ethintwe ukushoda kwama-chips ezimoto, ukuthengiswa kwemakethe yezimoto zabagibeli yaseChina kufinyelele ku-1453000 ngo-Agasti 2021, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-14.7% kanye nenyanga ngenyanga kwehle ngo-3.3 % ngo-Agasti.
Ngokwemininingwane ekhishwe yi-European Association of abakhiqizi bezimoto ngoSepthemba 16, ukubhaliswa kwezimoto ezintsha eYurophu kwehle ngo-24% no-18% unyaka nonyaka ngokulandelana ngoJulayi no-August kulo nyaka, okuyizinyanga ezimbili ne ukwehla okukhulu kusukela ekupheleni kwenhlekelele yezomnotho ye-euro ngo-2013.
Okwesibili, igaraji lomthengisi "alinalutho".Ngokusho kwemibiko yabezindaba yasekhaya, abanye abathengisi babike ukuthi kusukela ekupheleni kukaJulayi, kube nokushoda okujwayelekile kokuhlinzekwa kwamamodeli adumile ohlelweni lwe-DMS yomthengisi, futhi kusukela ngekota yesithathu, ama-oda amaningi ezimoto asalokhu ehlinzekwa ngezikhathi ezithile kwezinye izimoto, kanti ezinye izimoto azinazo izimoto ezikhona.
Ukwengeza, isikhathi se-inventory kanye nesikhathi sokuthengisa sabanye abathengisi sehlisiwe saba yizinsuku ezingaba ngu-20, okuyinto ephansi kakhulu kunevelu yezempilo eqashelwa embonini izinsuku ezingu-45.Lokhu kusho ukuthi uma lesi simo siqhubeka, sizosongela kakhulu ukusebenza kwansuku zonke kwabadayisi.
Kamuva, kwaba khona isimanga sokukhuphuka kwentengo emakethe yezimoto.Umphathi jikelele wesitolo i-4S eBeijing uthe ngenxa yokushoda kwama-chips umthamo wokukhiqiza usemncane manje, kanti ezinye izimoto nazo zidinga ama-oda.Asikho isitoko esiningi esitokweni, ngokunyuka okumaphakathi kwama-yuan angama-20000.
Kuyenzeka ukuthi kube necala elifanayo.Emakethe yezimoto yase-US, ngenxa yokungatholakali kwezimoto okwanele, intengo emaphakathi yokuthengisa yezimoto zase-US yeqe u-$41000 ngo-Agasti, irekhodi eliphezulu.
Okokugcina, kukhona isimanga sokuthi abathengisi bezimoto zohlobo oluphambili bathenga izimoto esezike zasetshenziswa ngentengo ye-invoyisi.Kubikwa ukuthi okwamanje, ezinye izitolo ze-4S zamabhizinisi ezimoto zikanokusho e-Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Tianjin, Sichuan nakwezinye izifunda seziqalise umsebenzi wokugaya kabusha izimoto ezisetshenzisiwe ngamanani amathikithi.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi ukugaywa kabusha kwezimoto ezingamasekeni amanani aphezulu kuwukuziphatha kwabadayisi bezimoto zikanokusho kuphela.Abanye abathengisi bezimoto zikanokusho abanemithombo yezimoto eyanele namanani entengo ezimoto ezintsha abakhethwanga ukubamba iqhaza.Umdayisi wohlobo oluphambili uthe ngaphambi kokushoda kwama-chip, amamodeli amaningi emikhiqizo ewubukhazikhazi ayenezaphulelo kumanani entengo.“Intengo yezimpahla zezimoto eminyakeni emibili edlule ibingaphezu kwamaphuzu ayi-15.Siyiqoqe ngokwenani le-invoyisi sase siyithengisa ngentengo eqondiswa izimoto ezintsha, senze inzuzo engaphezu kuka-10000.”
Abathengisi abangenhla bathe abathengisi babhekana nezingozi ezithile ekugayweni kabusha kwezimoto ezisetshenzisiwe ngamanani aphezulu.Uma kunenani elikhulu lezimoto futhi umkhiqizo wezimoto ezintsha ukhuphuka esikhathini esifushane, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezisetshenzisiwe kuzothinteka.Uma ingakwazi ukudayiswa, izimoto ezisetshenzisiwe ezitholwe ngenani eliphezulu zizothengiswa ngentengo ephansi.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-23-2021