Ngokukhula kwe-5G, AI kanye nezimakethe zamakhompiyutha ezisebenza kahle, isidingo sabathwali be-IC, ikakhulukazi abathwali be-ABF, siqhume.Nokho, ngenxa yomthamo olinganiselwe wabahlinzeki abafanelekile, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-ABF
abathwali bayashoda futhi intengo iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka.Imboni ilindele ukuthi inkinga yokutholakala okuqinile kwamapuleti e-ABF yenethiwekhi ingase iqhubeke kuze kube ngu-2023. Kulo mongo, izitshalo ezine ezinkulu zokulayisha amapuleti eTaiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, Jingshuo naseZhending KY, sethule izinhlelo zokunwetshwa kwe-ABF plate kulo nyaka, isamba sezindleko zemali engaphezulu kuka-NT $65 billion (cishe ama-RMB 15.046 billion) ezitshalweni zasezwekazini naseTaiwan.Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Ibiden ne-Shinko yase-Japan, i-Samsung motor kanye ne-Dade electronics yase-South Korea baye bakhulisa utshalomali lwabo kumapuleti enkampani ye-ABF.
Isidingo kanye nentengo yebhodi yenkampani ye-ABF ikhuphuka kakhulu, futhi ukushoda kungaqhubeka kuze kube ngu-2023
I-IC substrate ithuthukiswa ngesisekelo sebhodi le-HDI (ibhodi lesifunda le-high-density interconnection), elinezici zokuminyana okuphezulu, ukunemba okuphezulu, i-miniaturization kanye nokuqina.Njengento ephakathi exhuma i-chip kanye nebhodi lesifunda kunqubo yokupakishwa kwe-chip, umsebenzi oyinhloko webhodi le-ABF yenkampani yenethiwekhi ukwenza ukuxhumana okuphezulu nokuxhumanisa ngesivinini esikhulu nge-chip, bese uxhuma ngebhodi elikhulu le-PCB ngemigqa eyengeziwe. ebhodini le-IC carrier, elidlala indima yokuxhuma, ukuze kuvikelwe ubuqotho besekethe, ukunciphisa ukuvuza, ukulungisa indawo yomugqa Kuvumela ukuchithwa okungcono kokushisa kwe-chip ukuvikela i-chip, ngisho nokushumeka i-passive futhi iyasebenza. amadivaysi ukufeza imisebenzi ethile yesistimu.
Njengamanje, emkhakheni wokupakishwa okuphezulu, inkampani ye-IC isibe yingxenye ebalulekile yokupakishwa kwe-chip.Idatha ibonisa ukuthi okwamanje, ingxenye yenkampani yenethiwekhi ye-IC kuzo zonke izindleko zokupakisha ifinyelele cishe ku-40%.
Phakathi kwabathwali be-IC, kukhona ikakhulukazi abathwali be-ABF (Ajinomoto build up film) nabathwali be-BT ngokuya ngezindlela ezahlukene zobuchwepheshe ezifana ne-CLL resin system.
Phakathi kwazo, ibhodi yenkampani ye-ABF isetshenziselwa ikakhulukazi ama-chips aphezulu ekhompiyutha afana ne-CPU, i-GPU, i-FPGA ne-ASIC.Ngemva kokukhiqizwa kwalawa mashiphu, ngokuvamile adinga ukupakishwa ebhodini lenkampani ye-ABF ngaphambi kokuthi aqoqwe ebhodini elikhulu le-PCB.Uma inkampani yenethiwekhi ye-ABF isiphelile, abakhiqizi abakhulu abahlanganisa i-Intel ne-AMD abakwazi ukubalekela isiphetho sokuthi i-chip ayikwazi ukuthunyelwa.Ukubaluleka komthwali we-ABF kungabonakala.
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka odlule, ngenxa yokukhula kwe-5g, i-cloud AI computing, amaseva nezinye izimakethe, isidingo se-high-performance computing (HPC) chips sikhule kakhulu.Ngokuhambisana nokukhula kwesidingo semakethe samahhovisi asekhaya / ezokuzijabulisa, izimoto nezinye izimakethe, isidingo sama-CPU, i-GPU ne-AI chips ohlangothini lwetheminali sikhule kakhulu, okuphinde kwanyusa isidingo samabhodi abathwali be-ABF.Ngokuhambisana nomthelela wengozi yomlilo efektri yase-Ibiden Qingliu, ifekthri enkulu ethwala i-IC, kanye nemboni ye-Xinxing Electronic Shanying, abathwali be-ABF emhlabeni bashoda kakhulu.
NgoFebhuwari walo nyaka, kwaba nezindaba emakethe zokuthi amapuleti athwala i-ABF ashoda kakhulu, futhi umjikelezo wokulethwa ubuthathe amasonto angama-30.Ngenxa yokushoda kwe-ABF carrier plate, intengo nayo iqhubekile nokukhuphuka.Idatha ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngekota yesine yonyaka odlule, intengo yebhodi ye-IC carrier iqhubekile nokukhuphuka, kuhlanganise nebhodi le-BT carrier likhuphuke cishe ngo-20%, kuyilapho ibhodi lenkampani ye-ABF likhuphuka ngo-30% - 50%.
Njengoba umthamo wokuthwala i-ABF usezandleni zabakhiqizi abambalwa baseTaiwan, Japan naseNingizimu Korea, ukwanda kwabo kokukhiqiza bekulinganiselwe esikhathini esidlule, okwenza kube nzima ukudambisa ukushoda kwe-ABF carrier supply ngamafuphi. ithemu.
Ngakho-ke, abakhiqizi abaningi bokupakisha nokuhlola baqala ukuphakamisa ukuthi amakhasimende okugcina ashintshe inqubo yokukhiqiza amanye amamojula kusuka kunqubo ye-BGA edinga inkampani ye-ABF ukuze ihambisane nenqubo ye-QFN, ukuze kugwenywe ukubambezeleka kokuthunyelwa ngenxa yokungakwazi ukuhlela umthamo wenkampani yenethiwekhi ye-ABF. .
Abakhiqizi benkampani yenethiwekhi bathi okwamanje, imboni ngayinye yenkampani yenethiwekhi ayinaso isikhala esiningi somthamo wokuxhumana nanoma yimaphi ama-oda "we-queue jumping" ngentengo yeyunithi ephezulu, futhi yonke into ibuswa amakhasimende aqinisekisa amandla ngaphambilini.Manje amanye amakhasimende akhulume ngisho nangomthamo kanye no-2023,
Phambilini, umbiko wocwaningo kaGoldman Sachs ubuye wabonisa ukuthi nakuba amandla enkampani ye-ABF enwetshiwe ye-IC carrier Nandian embonini yaseKunshan ezweni laseChina kulindeleke ukuthi iqale ngekota yesibili yalo nyaka, ngenxa yokwelulwa kwesikhathi sokulethwa kwemishini edingekayo ekukhiqizeni. ukunwetshwa kuya ezinyangeni eziyisi-8 ~ 12, umthamo wokuthwala i-ABF womhlaba wonke ukhuphuke ngo-10% ~ 15% kuphela kulo nyaka, kodwa isidingo semakethe siyaqhubeka nokuba namandla, futhi igebe eliphelele lesidingo sokuhlinzeka kulindeleke ukuthi libe nzima ukulidambisa ngo-2022.
Eminyakeni emibili ezayo, ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo sama-PC, amaseva wamafu nama-chips e-AI, isidingo sabathwali be-ABF sizoqhubeka nokukhula.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi yomhlaba wonke ye-5g kuzophinde kudle inani elikhulu labathwali be-ABF.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokuncipha komthetho kaMoore, abakhiqizi bama-chip nabo baqala ukusebenzisa kakhulu ubuchwepheshe bokupakisha obuthuthukisiwe ukuze baqhubeke nokukhuthaza izinzuzo zomnotho zomthetho kaMoore.Isibonelo, ubuchwepheshe be-Chiplet, obuthuthukiswe ngamandla embonini, budinga usayizi omkhulu wenkampani ye-ABF kanye nesivuno esincane sokukhiqiza.Kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukiswe isidingo sabathwali be-ABF.Ngokwesibikezelo seTuopu Industry Research Institute, isilinganiso sanyanga zonke sesidingo samapuleti athwala i-ABF emhlabeni wonke sizokhula sisuka ezigidini eziyi-185 siye ezigidini ezingama-345 ukusuka ngonyaka ka-2019 kuya ku-2023, ngenani lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka lika-16.9%.
Izimboni ezinkulu zokulayisha amapuleti zandise ukukhiqiza kwazo ngokulandelana
Ngenxa yokushoda okuqhubekayo kwamapuleti enkampani ye-ABF njengamanje kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo semakethe esikhathini esizayo, abakhiqizi abane abakhulu be-IC carrier plate eTaiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, jingshuo kanye neZhending KY, bethule izinhlelo zokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kulo nyaka, isamba sezindleko zemali engaphezulu kuka-NT $65 billion (cishe amabhiliyoni angama-RMB 15.046) azotshalwa ezimbonini ezisezwenikazi naseTaiwan.Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Ibiden kanye ne-Shinko yase-Japan baphinde baphothula ama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-180 kanye namaphrojekthi okwandisa ama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-90 ngokulandelanayo.Inkampani yaseSouth Korea yakwaSamsung kagesi kanye neDade electronics nayo yandise ukutshalwa kwezimali kwayo.
Phakathi kwezitshalo ezine zokuthwala i-IC ezixhaswe yiTaiwan, imali enkulu kunazo zonke esetshenzisiwe kulo nyaka bekuyi-Xinxing, imboni ehamba phambili, efinyelele ku-NT $ 36.221 billion (cishe ama-RMB 8.884 billion), ibalwa ngaphezu kuka-50% wesamba sokutshalwa kwezimali kwezitshalo ezine, futhi inyuke ngo-157% uma kuqhathaniswa ne-NT $14.087 billion ngonyaka odlule.I-Xinxing ikhulise ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwezimali izikhathi ezine kulo nyaka, igqamisa isimo samanje sokuthi imakethe iyashoda.Ngaphezu kwalokho, u-Xinnxing usayine izinkontileka zeminyaka emithathu namakhasimende athile ukugwema ubungozi bokuguqulwa kwesidingo semakethe.
UNandian uhlela ukusebenzisa okungenani i-NT $8 billion (cishe i-RMB 1.852 billion) emalini eyinhloko kulo nyaka, ngokunyuka konyaka okungaphezu kuka-9%.Ngaso leso sikhathi, izophinde yenze iphrojekthi yokutshalwa kwezimali ka-NT $8 billion eminyakeni emibili ezayo ukuze kunwetshwe umugqa wokulayisha webhodi le-ABF lemboni yaseTaiwan Shulin.Kulindeleke ukuthi kuvulwe umthamo omusha wokulayisha ibhodi kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2022 kuya ku-2023.
Ngenxa yokusekelwa okuqinile kwenkampani engumzali i-Heshuo group, i-Jingshuo ikhulise ngenkuthalo umthamo wokukhiqiza wenkampani yenethiwekhi ye-ABF.Izindleko zenhloko-dolobha yalo nyaka, okuhlanganisa ukuthengwa komhlaba kanye nokwandiswa kokukhiqiza, kulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzodlula i-NT $ 10 billion, kuhlanganise ne-NT $ 4.485 billion ekuthengeni umhlaba kanye nezakhiwo e-Myrica rubra.Kuhlanganiswe nokutshalwa kwezimali kwasekuqaleni ekuthengweni kwemishini kanye nenqubo yokususa i-bottlenecking ukuze kwandiswe inkampani yenethiwekhi ye-ABF, inani eliphelele lemali esetshenziswayo kulindeleke ukuthi lenyuke ngaphezu kuka-244% uma liqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, futhi kuyisizinda sesibili esithwala impahla e-Taiwan imali yayo enkulu. idlule i-NT $10 billion.
Ngaphansi kwesu lokuthenga okukodwa eminyakeni yamuva nje, iqembu le-Zhending aligcinanga ngokwenza inzuzo ngempumelelo ebhizinisini elikhona le-BT lenkampani yenethiwekhi futhi laqhubeka nokuphindaphinda umthamo walo wokukhiqiza, kodwa futhi ngaphakathi laphothula isu leminyaka emihlanu lesakhiwo senkampani yenethiwekhi futhi laqala isinyathelo. kwinkampani yenethiwekhi ye-ABF.
Ngenkathi ukunwetshwa okukhulu kwe-Taiwan komthamo wokuthwala i-ABF, izinhlelo ezinkulu ze-Japan ne-South Korea zokukhulisa umthamo wenkampani yenethiwekhi nazo ziyakhula muva nje.
I-Ibiden, inkampani ethwala amapuleti enkulu eJapan, iphothule uhlelo lokunweba lokuthwala amapuleti lwama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-180 (cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-10.606), okuhloswe ngayo ukudala inani eliphumayo elingaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-250 ngo-2022, elilingana nezigidigidi ezingama-US $2.13.UShinko, omunye umkhiqizi wenkampani yaseJapan kanye nomnikezeli obalulekile we-Intel, useqedele uhlelo lokunweba lwama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-90 (cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5.303).Kulindeleke ukuthi amandla okuthwala anyuke ngo-40% ngo-2022 futhi imali engenayo izofinyelela cishe ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-US $ 1.31.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Samsung motor yaseNingizimu Korea inyuse isilinganiso semali yokulayisha amapuleti yaba ngaphezu kuka-70% ngonyaka odlule futhi yaqhubeka nokutshala imali.I-Dade electronics, enye imboni yokulayisha amapuleti yaseNingizimu Korea, iphinde yaguqula imboni yayo ye-HDI yaba yindawo yokulayisha amapuleti e-ABF, ngenhloso yokukhulisa imali engenayo okungenani ngama-US $ 130 wezigidi ngo-2022.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-26-2021